Anonymous
Anonymous asked in Politics & GovernmentElections · 1 month ago

Which state would be the easiest for Trump to pickup. Colorado, Maine, Minnesota, Nevada, New Hampshire or Virginia?

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  • Tmess2
    Lv 7
    1 month ago
    Favorite Answer

    Easiest would be New Hampshire.  It is the smallest of the group and he only needs to pick up 3,000 votes from 2016.  It is also the only one in which the current polling average is closer than the national average according to the RCP average.

    None of them are easy.  Colorado and Virginia should be taken off the list of battleground states. Each cycle, they appear to be bluer and bluer.  Last election, Clinton won both by 5%.  In Colorado, that was slightly down from 2012, but, in Virginia, that was up from 2012.  You have to go back to 2009 to see the last state-wide election won by a Republican in Virginia. 

    In Maine, the state as a whole seems to be slipping away and Senator Collins seems to be on life support especially as Maine uses ranked-choice voting (meaning that candidates who vote for the Green Party as their first choice can still vote for Joe Biden as their second choice and Trump needs to get an absolute majority to win).  The bigger race in Maine is for the one electoral vote from the Second District which Trump won in 2016 but could lose on the third or fourth round of the count this time.

    Minnesota and Nevada are microcosms of the election at large.  Nevada is about Las Vegas and Reno vs. the rest of the state and a growing reliance on absentee ballots as the primary way to vote.   Which absentee ballots are counted and turnout will determine who can win.  Trump currently is trying to win Nevada in the courts by blocking effort to get absentee ballots to voters.  While Nevada is slightly more favorable to Biden than the national average, it is the only state other than New Hampshire of the states covered by this question which is currently considered a toss-up by RCP.

    Minnesota -- like its cohorts in Wisconsin, Michigan, Ohio, and Pennsylvania is about the suburbs of the big cities versus small cities that used to be the economic backbone of the U.S. before Reagan broke the unions and opened the doorway to shipping jobs overseas.  As white voters with college degrees are migrating toward the Democratic Party, white voters without college degrees are migrating toward the Republican Party). Which one of those two trends is happening faster will determine how close Minnesota is.  But Minnesota is a much larger state than New Hampshire and much more of a lean Democrat state, so it will take much more effort.

  • 1 month ago

    He'll pick up all of them and Arizona and Florida.  Americans have not lost their minds as yet.  We still believe in America and her greatness.  We still love our freedoms and refuse to give up our guns for anyone.

  • 1 month ago

    None of them. And, if he loses Arizona and/or Florida, which is looking more and more likely, none of those states are going to help him enough anyway.

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