Gungy
Lv 6
Gungy asked in Politics & GovernmentPolitics · 4 weeks ago

As Hillary couldn't pull it off, what in hell makes a leftist think Biden has a snow balls chance? Remember, the "majority" of America...?

...hangs up the phone when pollsters come calling. That's exactly why CNN & MSNBC thought Hillary based on who actually answered poll calls was a sure winner. Then on Nov. 3rd this year, what do you think will happen while America takes one last look at AOC's puppet Biden?

Update:

All that matters is the electoral college --> Trump 306 ( 270 needed to win ) Hillary 232.

12 Answers

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  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    So let me tackle one of your later assertions first: it' certainly true that most people who get called by pollsters don't respond.  That's why they have to call so many people.  But that doesn't mean that polls are inaccurate, and the idea, implicit in your comments, that the polls were wrong in 2016 is completely false.  At least on a national level, the polls were pretty accurate in 2016.  The last set of them, taken after James Comey upended the race by announcing the reopening of the Clinton email case, showed her with about a two point lead over Trump.  That's about where she finished in the popular vote. Of course, Trump ended up winning a surprise victory.  But that was a surprise because people assumed that, as in almost all Presidential elections, the winner of the popular vote would win the election.  The national preference polls didn't predict, because they couldn't predict, that Trump would have a geograhical spread of support which would allow him to, barely, win the electoral college.  (You've got a better case that some of the state level polls were off, but that was largely because of a relative dearth of polling due to many of those states being assumed to be safe).

    So if we recognize that the final batch of 2016 polls were accurate, then we should assume that the current batch of polls are accurate.  The likely accuracy of them is enhanced because lots of different polling outfits, working for lots of different organizations, are all coming up with the same sort of results.  There's variation, of course.  Some polls are showing Biden ahead by twelve points, others by nine points.  But they're all showing Biden with significant leads.  Which should increase confidence in the general results, if not the specific numbers.  Because it's unlikely that numerous polling organizations are all getting it wrong in exactly the same way.  This result also fits with the outcome of years of opinion polling.  These polls, taken by numerous organizations and over many years, show that Trump has never enjoyed majority support from Americans, from the announcement of his candidacy to now.  In fact, Trump has spent almost all of his presidency with approval below the 46% of the vote which he got in 2016.   A final problem here is that Biden's lead is so huge, 15 points in the latest poll, that even if we accepted that there were errors in the polls it would be essentially impossible for them to be so big as for Trump to actually be ahead.  I mean, the poll would have to be off by 8 points for Trump to be ahead.  The chances of that are exceptionally slim, at best. 

    As for why Biden is ahead, you start with the flawed premise that Hillary Clinton was the superior candidate.  If she "couldn't pull it off" then how could Biden?  But as one observer at the time said, both parties in 2016 really nominated the only candidate who could possibly lose to the other.  Clinton faced a number of deficits that Biden doesn't this time around.  First and foremost among these was a set of baggage a mile long.  As one Republican political operative said "I made my first anti Hillary Clinton ad back in 1992 and I never stopped doing them".  By the time she ran for President, Clinton had been subject to almost a quarter century of demonization  by the right wing media.  A lot of us on the left didn't fully appreciate how offensive a figure Clinton was to many people on the right.  One influential conservative essay likened the 2016 election to "Flight 93", the 9/11 hijacked plane which crashed after the passengers fought back against the terrorists.  In this formulation, Clinton was the terrorist who was threatening to "hijack" America and destroy it.  It was literally comparing her to the terrorists who carried out the deadliest act of terrorism in world history.  Most conservatives may not have been that overwrought about it, but they regarded her as an offensive, possibly evil, figure. This kept a lot of them "in line" with the Republican party even though they may have had doubts about Trump (or even actively disliked him).  Biden doesn't have that.  For most of his thirty year career in the Senate he drew no particular attention from conservatives.  Even after he became Obama's VP he didn't draw significant attacks (conservatives spent most of their energy in attacking Obama, often in racialized ways).  Biden also isn't dogged by an ongoing scandal like Clinton was with her emails.  Trump is really only in office today because the FBI reopened the case into her emails in the last week of the campaign.  The investigation found nothing new, but it reminded voters of why they didn't like Clinton and depressed her poll numbers.  Clinton cleaned Trump's clock in early voting, before the announcement, but lost decisively to him on election day, allowing him to eke out a win.  Biden doesn't have that.  Attempts to try and make something out of his son's business dealings in Ukraine have failed (probably because they largely came to ligth as a result of Trump's own wrongdoing there).  A allegation of sexual assault made news briefly but then faded away.  Biden, who maintains a centrist instinct and rhetoric even as he runs on a very liberal platform, has so far proven immune to Trump campaign efforts to smear him, or tie him to something negative. Finally, one of the big advantages that Biden has which Clinton didn't is that a Trump presidency isn't theoretical anymore.  We know what it will actually be like.  Part of the problem for Clinton in 2016 was that Trump didn't have any record which she could criticize.  He could claim to be anything and nothing.  I remember, for example, that different groups of Trump supporters would claim both that he would get us out of Middle Eastern wars and that he would fight and kill terrorists more aggressively than any President before.  Obviously both of those couldn't be true.  But Trump's lack of record, and his divergent rhetoric, allowed different people to believe what they wanted.  A lot of people also seemed to believe his rhetoric that he'd be great at running things, perhaps believing that his business background gave him some managerial competency.  And most Trump supporters hoped that his obnoxious behavior and offensive rhetoric would turn out to be just a phase and that he'd mature in office.  Now we know that all those expectations about Trump were wrong.  He hasn't matured or changed.  If anything he's gotten worse.  He has run the government like a business, but specifically like the six businesses which he drove into bankruptcy.  And he's got a record which he has to defend now.  There's no wall, there's no flood of new manufacturing jobs, we're not respected in the world, we've seen 130 thousand Americans killed, the economy is tanking.  People don't like his record and he can't run from it or obfuscate it like he did in 2016. 

    Finally, let me add one other wrinkle which informs the notion that Biden will likely win: the fact that Trump barely won in 2016.  Of course, we know that Trump lost the popular vote.  But I don't think that many Republicans understand just how narrowly Trump won the electoral college.  He flipped six states in 2016,  but in four of those he won by less than 1.5%.  Those are narrow margins.  In particular, his margin of victory in the electoral college came from three states where Trump won surprising vicories: Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.  But in all three, Trump beat Clinton by less than 0.75% of the vote.  In Michigan, a state where about four million votes were cast, he got just 10,000 more votes than her.  In Wisconsin, he actually got fewer votes than Mitt Romney did when he lost the state four years earlier.  So, as you should be able to see, Trump's victory very nearly didn't happen.  The question really isn't "if Hillary couldn't pull it off then how can Biden".  The question is "If Trump can't defeat Clinton, with all of her problems, then how can he defeat Biden?".  Remember that Clinton beat Trump by about two points in the popular vote.  This was low enough that Trump could beat her in the electoral college, but just barely.  If Clinton had done basically any better in the popular vote then Trump probably would have lost.  Well, in the latest poll, Biden is doing thirteen points better than Clinton did against Trump. That's probably about twelve points more than Biden would need to wipe out Trump's electoral college margins. 

  • Ian
    Lv 4
    4 weeks ago

    BAH HA HA HA!!! Scared Righty! You may be better organized but you are CLUELESS if you believe in the deplorable majority. Keep spinning! Keep posting so your numbers SEEM inflated. But the Orange turd has DESTROYED the Repugnantcans and your attempts to rule. BYE BYE!!!!

  • 4 weeks ago

    You know that thing about Trump's "energized base"? Well, a lot of people are getting energized by Trump's bullsh*t. 

    You got a good line on that brand of bullsh*t with "AOC's puppet Biden". That's 100% right wing hyperbolical diarrhea.  

  • Marduk
    Lv 7
    4 weeks ago

    I agree.   This country has come to the end, the end, my friend!! Had to happen sometimes.   Seems as the CSA has finally won the war after all these years. 

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  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    Hillary won the general election by 3 million votes, but thanks for playing.

  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    This is like saying that Trump won the lottery once, he is sure to win it again. No, he isn't. Especially since he has fewer tickets this year.

  • 4 weeks ago

    But...........but.......THE POLLS say he's going to win!!!!!

  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    People have seen what Trump has done - and none of it is any good...

  • Anonymous
    4 weeks ago

    Still suffering from Hillary Derangement Syndrome? LOL!

  • Leo
    Lv 7
    4 weeks ago

    Your rant is gibberish.

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