Chance of something occurring after a certain amount of tries?
I am trying to figure out the probability of success after multiple tries.
Lets say the chance to hit a target is 41%. What is the chance to hit the target after 6 attempts?
Chance to hit a target is 42%. What is the chance to hit the target after 8 attempts?
- ted sLv 73 weeks ago
41% and 42%....they are independent tries
- Demiurge42Lv 73 weeks ago
The probability of missing the target on the first 6 attempts is 0.59^6. So the probability of hitting the target at least once on the first 6 tries is 1 - 0.59^6 = 0.958
For 8 tries it is 1 - 0.58^8 = 0.987
- BryceLv 73 weeks ago
Use the Binomial Probability Distribution Function.
1. Probability of hitting the target one or more times: 0.9578
2. Probability of hitting the target one or more times: 0.9872
- yet-knish!Lv 73 weeks ago
Previous tries have no effect on the odds of a current try. If you've tossed a coin a hundred times and gotten 100 heads, the odds of throwing another are still 50-50.
But, the odds of throwing 101 heads in a row are extremely low.