Hard to believe anything without at least a tiny bit of evidence.
As far as intelligent civilization somewhere else in universe, people come up with all sorts of numbers, statistics, factors for or against, and still think a huge number of them are a certainty.
But I am coming to believe even more than one might be incredible long shots worthy of Annie Oakley. Look at our own situation:
--Find the right type of galaxy (spiral with lots of star formations, multiple generations of them from supernova gas clouds that have a lot of heavy elements)
--Be in a quiet corner of galaxy (near a spiral arm, away from the core's active black hole, gamma ray bursters, nearby supernovae)
--Orbit without much variation in the ideal Goldilocks distance around an ordinary mid-sized single star with a long life.
--Have a glancing collision with a similar early planet, making a very large very hot iron core that makes a strong magnetic field, and a stabilizing large close moon
--Have a big gas giant neighbor that sweeps up most, not all trash like comets, asteroids.
--Have a few mild to serious impacts that refresh the dominant species structure now and then.
--Have a freakish completely natural uranium fission reactor in a jungle riverbank billions of years ago that irradiates local animals and causes rapid evolution.
--Avoid complete extinction of a particular tool using quite large brained species from plagues, natural disasters, severe climate change (ice ball planet, runaway greenhouse) for millions of years.
That is like rolling a natural 7 about 30 times in a row at a craps table. Very long odds.