Carrington Events. Another in the list of variables of solar impacts on climate. Will IPCC acknowledge?
A Carrington event lasting as little as 2 days, could drive earth climate to cool by 3 - 5 degrees K which would persists for months.
So now we have TSI, Geomagnetic field variations, sunspot activity, and now Carrington events among the growing list of variables in how changes on solar activity impact Earth Climate. Will the IPCC and other warmists finally begin to give the sun its due?
@Ottawa,I agree about the multi-decadal timescales. It sounds like the Carrington Events are relatively short lived in their impacts. i.e. cooling for a period of months, not years. I point out the Carrington events merely to say changes in the sun do in fact apear to impact the Earth Climate system.
- Ottawa MikeLv 68 years agoFavorite Answer
I'm not sure I even acknowledge this aspect of solar activity but that's beside the point.
Warmists basically ignore the Sun based on TSI which they say hasn't risen in the past 50 years in correlation with temperature. But then ask them a basic thought question that if TSI remained steady but global cloud cover decreased, what would be the effect on global temperatures? And then ask them about other solar activity like solar wind. You'd be accused of being an oil company executive and that's just for asking.
I'm skeptical of the effect of a Carrington event on multi-decadal time scales but it's certainly something to keep studying. On the other hand, I'm sure warmists will be completely dismissive since it doesn't fit the "meme". And they call us deniers. Whatever.
Edit: I just read an article in NewScientist about solar activity which was surprisingly lucid given their recent track record: http://www.newscientist.com/article/mg21528843.700...
- ElizabethLv 78 years ago
So, what these authors have done is model the possible effects of a 'Carrington event'. This is how applied science operates - you take a theory, build a model, and predict the effects. What the paper describes is a 'what if' scenario.
What that has to do with global warming is beyond me. Climatologists are fully aware of the effects of the giant fusion ball of hydrogen and helium sitting 93 million miles from the earth. It's not like they've suddenly had a eureka moment and cried 'Doh! We forgot about the sun!'. They're fully aware of the science, and fully aware of the effect it has on our climate - it is the reason the planet isn't at about 4 Kelvin. 'Warmists' and the IPCC give the sun its due. The problem is that the sun isn't responsible for the warming or CO2 increases we've observed in recent decades. We can say that because it has been considered, analysed and rejected as an explanation. Skeptics need to get over it, suck it up and admit they were wrong, and move on to their next 'theory'.
- antarcticiceLv 78 years ago
So let me get this straight, you are quoting scientists (who denier tells us are liars) from a scientific journal (that deniers tell us are liars) on a paper that uses models (that deniers tell us can't be trusted)
"So now we have TSI, Geomagnetic field variations, sunspot activity"
You make it sound like these were just discovered yet all where monitored from the start of the satellite era, several for decades before that and Sunspot records date back much further.
Now I know how deniers love to try an reinterpret my words so lets be clear, the paper is putting forward a theory, it is talking about estimated changes if we have another Carrington Event.
By the way you forgot CMI's and their precursors Forbush events.
As for Carrington Events do you even know what they are (a very large solar flare), the reference to the one in 1859, is the last known one, luckily for us it happened before the start of the electronic age as such an event have a profound effect on the electronics we have come to depend on and overload much of the electricity grid and telephone system, if one happens again I think a little short term climate change will be the least of our problems.
I continue to be amazed by the nonsense deniers post, in what they think somehow disproves AGW, scientists certainly have never disputed that many things have caused past climate change, it would be odd for them to do so as they (not deniers) are the ones who actually discovered these past changes and their causes.
In terms of climate, a Carrington Event would be a short term event, Ozone would take some time to recover but unless it's a continuous effect the Earth recovers, bigger events like Super Volcanoes are similar with decades probably a few centuries to recover, we had a small example of that with Pinatubo the largest volcano of the last 100 years, it caused a short 0.5c drop in temperatures, short in this case being ~18 months.
- 4 years ago
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- Jeff MLv 78 years ago
Why do you think 'warmists' have not given the Sun it's due? If a Sun cycle or something similar needs to be recorded a satellite is sent up into space or ground based equipment is used to do just that. We are already recording TSI, sunspot activity, solar input and geomagnetic field variations.
And no one stated that the Sun did not impact the Earth-climate system, Why do you think things like the LIA and the MWP happened? climatologists and everyone that studies this in depth know of the impact the Sun has on the planet. However, instead of just stating the 'what ifs' and 'maybes' you're going to have to also include actual measurements of these things to support your contention. as well give an explanation of how they would affect the Earth's atmosphere and so on. science is based off of real world measurements. that is something people who label themselves skeptics have been asking for. One wonders why, as in this case, it doesn't go both ways.
- david bLv 58 years ago
"" I point out the Carrington events merely to say changes in the sun do in fact apear to impact the Earth Climate system.""
Good that you've finally caught up to the rest of us. Now explain the recent rise in global temperatures over a period of decreasing solar activity.
- Anonymous8 years ago
Who says that the Sun does not effect climate? The overall trend for solar activity has been one of declining for the last 50 years. If not for the effect that humans are effecting climate, Earth would be cooling, and it would have been cooling rapidly over the last decade.
- Anonymous8 years ago
"You can't tax PEOPLE if 'man-made Global Warming' is shown to be caused by the Sun." By that twisted logic one can make the claim that since people ARE taxed today, AGW is NOT caused by the sun.
But seriously, it shows one of the reasons why Maxx denies the science, he wants to be able to pollute freely rather then to be a responsible member of society and clean up his mess.
- Anonymous8 years ago
The current acceleration of man made GW/Cli,ate Change is fueled by our greenhouse emissions due to burning of fossil fuels. This has been correlated with the rise in global temps for more than 3 decades.
What part of the sun has been in a cooling cycle for years don't you understand. When you can come up with actual peer reviewed paper by a real climatologist then you might make an argument for that. Unfortunately youknowwhat will likely freeze over before that happens.
Atmospheric theory isn't climatology!
- MaxxLv 78 years ago
You can't tax PEOPLE if 'man-made Global Warming' is shown to be caused by the Sun. So, just as always, the IPCC will turn a blind eye toward any kind of solar activity that is shown to significantly impact climate.
We are dealing with propagandists here, nothing else.